彼得·蒂尔：比特币企业的成功不可依赖于比特币价格

在2015年2月26日，由创业家和中信出版社联合主办、黑马学院承办的“2015创投极客论坛”上，彼得·蒂尔多次提到最核心的投资价值观就是要“追求垄断”。

在彼得·蒂尔眼中只有两种公司，第一种是垄断的公司，他们是唯一做这件事情的人,那么他们处于非常有利的地位，公司的利润非常高；第二种公司进行疯狂的竞争，结果很难把业务发展得很好。以Google为例，他认为Google之所以特别成功是因为建立起了某种形式的垄断。

在会议现场的互动环节中,OKCoin比特币交易平台国际部总监Jack(刘成奇)与彼特先生进行了简短的交流，下面是对话的全部内容（中英文）。

Peter，您好，欢迎您来到北京。我来自中国最大的比特币公司OKCoin，我叫刘JACK。在中国，OKCoin是最大的比特币交易平台（市场）。关于商业成功的关键因素--建立垄断、避免竞争,您有什么看法，比如：目前比特币世界里垄断还未建立，最有竞争力的领域也并未浮现，那么如果是您，将会选择哪一条比特币行业的垂直链来建立最终的行业垄断地位。

“Hi Peter, Welcome to Beijing. I'm Jack Liu from OKCoin - China's largest Bitcoin company. We're the easiest place in China to buy Bitcoin and to use Bitcoin. Given your talk on building monopolies and avoiding competition as keys to success, in the Bitcoin world where the monopolies haven't been established, and which areas are most competitive isn't clear, what verticals would you focus on as a Bitcoin company if you're looking to establish a monopoly position ultimately in the Bitcoin world.”

Peter Thiel："我得承认，我一直都有些看空比特币，包括其所有方面。我之所以会产生这样的偏见，是因为我们建立PayPal的初衷就是想要创造一种世界货币，但我们失败了。当你失败的时候，你总会认为其他人做同一件事也不会成功，所以我对比特币存有一些负面的偏见。

让我来说说我的理由，一个本质上的原因以及给你一个建议。假如你关注比特币价格，你一定知道比特币在经历了去年的大涨大跌之后，最近有所回升；假如你关注过不少关于比特币的媒体报道，你会发现其图表几乎都一样，先大涨再大跌。

当你拥有两张看起来一模一样的图表时，很自然地就导致了问题：比特币到底仅仅是一种媒体现象，还是真实存在的东西。这是我对比特币带有负面看法的理由。

现在，如果你真正想要在比特币的领域做一些事情，你想利用比特币的技术来创业，那么假如我是投资者，我就想问一个关键性的问题，我为什么要投资你的公司而不去投资比特币本身。

因为如果比特币的生态系统发展得很好，那么对比投资某比特币公司获得股权，直接屯币将更加安全，拥有更多的流动性，同时也具有超高的回报。

另外，我觉得确实存在于每个比特币公司的一个问题是，这些公司的估值都与比特币的价值紧密联系，这也是为什么大多数比特币企业家很难回答这个关键性问题的原因所在。

因此，我认为应该关注那些能够给出不同答案的自然生态垂直链，就是那些与比特币价值本身无关的比特币公司。

比特币公司可能会利用比特币协议来做认证合同之类的事情，都无关乎比特币本身的价值，然而更多的比特币所拥有的技术是用来发展比特币自身的。

在多数情况下，我觉得你最好选择投资比特币，而不是比特币公司。所以，你必须考虑好这个问题，确保你一直都有一个很好的答案。"

“Peter Thiel: I have to always confess I'm a little bit bearish on Bitcoin in its entirety. I'm biased because when I started Paypal, we set out to create a world currency. We failed. When you fail to do something, you often end up thinking nobody else can do that. So I have a somewhat negative bias on Bitcoin. Let me say my one reason for my negativity - a substantive reason to be negative and give you one piece of advice. The substantive reason to be negative is if you look at the price of bitcoins, the value of bitcoins, it sort of has gone up, it went up a lot, went down a lot in the last year and if you look at the number of media stories about Bitcoin, the chart looks identical. It went up a lot, it's come down a lot. And when you have two charts that look the same, it leads naturally to the question: Is Bitcoin simply a media phenomenon, or is it something real. So that's the general skepticism.

Now if you really want to do something in the Bitcoin space, you want to start a company using Bitcoin technology, I would say a critical question I would have as an investor, is why would I invest in your company rather than Bitcoin itself. Since if the Bitcoin ecosystem will do well, it's much safer, there's more liquidity, and probably also a very high return just to buy bitcoins rather than invest in the equity of a Bitcoin company. This is a question, and I think it's true of all the companies where the value of the company is linked to the value of bitcoins. And that's why most bitcoin entrepreneurs have a very hard time answering that.

So I think the natural vertical to focus on is the vertical where the question can be answered differently. It's those Bitcoin companies where the value does not have anything to do with the value of Bitcoin themselves. Bitcoin companies maybe using the protocol to sort of authenticate a contract or something like that which is not about the value of bitcoins, but more of the technology that Bitcoin has developed itself. But in many cases, I think you're better off investing in bitcoin than Bitcoin companies. So you always have to have a good answer to that question.”

关于彼特先生的发言，OKCoin比特币交易平台联合创始人何一认为："OKCoin目前的发展战略方向与彼特先生的某些观点是一致的。

一个企业想要拥有“垄断优势”，必须具备强大的自身优势如技术优势，以及良好的用户体验。针对2014年全球数字货币交易所的“跑路潮”所带来的借鉴和思考，OKCoin立志于为国内外用户提供最安全的资金保障、最超前的技术服务和最优异的用户体验。

2015年，为所有比特币用户打造一个数字货币世界最高安全级别的交易所，将成为OKCoin的目标。 "