Is this a commercial device? Hear from an expert in market analysis.

This sentence was interpreted as follows by putting together a soundtrack by BlockBeats based on the announcement of its own SNS by Dylan LeClair, creator of 21st Paradigm.

Bitcoin recently lost nearly $33,000. Why are prices subject to change? What will happen next? Here's a breakdown of the shape of strings and derivatives, at the macro level.

On-chain data analysis

One of the hottest topics recently is the relationship between Bitcoin and NASDAQ (and other potentially dangerous assets). The Nasdaq is currently down 14% from its highs, its biggest selloff since March 2020. The 30-day Bitcoin-Nasdaq Relationship Index fell to 0.80.

Eurodollar futures can be seen as a market reflecting government revenue expectations that have already responded to four rate hikes in 2022. When tight financial controls are needed, the market will be affected.

With the increasing adoption of Bitcoin in macro currencies between 2020 and 2021, Bitcoin has increasingly become a risky and risky asset. We can see Grayscale, one of the early movers of the bull market, which received nearly 400,000 bitcoins in exchange for GBTC (Grayscale stock) on behalf of traders and businesses.

These traders bought GBTC from Greyscale at NAV and wanted to book it at a premium for "risk-free" net trading, but they saw that arbitrage pattern broke when GBTC started trading under NAV in February of Last year.

However, $650,000 worth of Bitcoin is still traded as commodities in the form of grayscale shares on the OTC market. And as refunds are turned into rebates, money has started to trickle into the market, prompting traders to split their money into GBTC rather than Bitcoin, that's fine.

GBTC was also traded illegally as the market recently shifted to a risk-free mode. Although GBTC's NAV rebate has been extended to historically low levels, it makes sense to provide the status quo to many insurers. The same macro activity group has been distributed. Investment in Bitcoin in 2020-2021.

Now let’s take a look at where the current Bitcoin exchange rate stands compared to its historical value.

The MVRV (cost-based price ratio) shows the boom and bust cycle in Bitcoin's history. Currently, the Bitcoin value of the chain is $24,000 and the MVRV ratio is around 1.5.

Bitcoin's current MVRV ratio is at 38% of its historic figure. Historical data shows that when Bitcoin drops below its true value (MVRV is below 1.0), it's almost always a good buy. While Bitcoin will not necessarily lose $24,000, its value is very attractive to buy.

We have also seen long-term holders continue to sell during the slowdown of the past few months. It is a strange phenomenon in the history of Bitcoin, when long-term holders come together during a rally, usually when the bear market and sales are up.

Clearly, macro-level concerns are one of the drivers, but the good news is that the coin hoarding trend is now starting again.

Token Destroy Days (CDD) is calculated by allocating tokens in exchange by days since the coin was last used, while 90-day roll aggregation is usually used to indicate a token close to assets and sales . Bitcoin now has strong competition.

Analysis of derivatives

For Bitcoin derivatives, it is important to note the following:

1. Always a gift

2. Future April

3. The type of collateral used in the derivative obligation

the future is eternal

Perpetual term funding indicates whether the derivative is above or below the Bitcoin price. Speculative bulls are not present, but bears are not too aggressive either. Bottom trading is often characterized by poor financial performance coupled with the allure of bears in derivatives trading.

For example, the chart below is from BitMEX, a major time exchange, showing the 2018-2019 market below, when the bears briefly weigh $3,000 below after Bitcoin's 85% retracement. . The global transmission of COVID-19 (global transmission) and last summer fell in the same way.

March gifts

Since last summer, the correlation between the price of Bitcoin and the futures basis has been close to 1:1, indicating that existing traders are investors. A root of 0% or negative should signal a market.

Type of insurance used to enter into a derivative contract

Using crypto collateral for Bitcoin futures extends its long-term downtrend, positive growth as stability coins see no convexity during market downturns like Bitcoin Margin Futures.

The DXY, which measures the value of the US dollar against other fiat currencies, has been rising since the start of 2021. It is important to monitor the strength of the dollar as the Fed tries to tighten policy because it does not support growth. .

By the time the bull market returns, I think the situation is still mature. While around 81% of devices are in the hands of long-term holders, devices are only one store. A bull market resume will need a high-demand, non-speculative location.

macro market analysis

At the macro level, the key question is when short amounts in macro amounts turn into long amounts.

The fact is that dollars with negative returns are worth hundreds of millions of dollars, inevitably leading to losses. So if the Fed changes its policy, Bitcoin will do anything to grow faster. It's 'when', not 'yes'.

In long-term spending, the outcome of business improvement can be dichotomous. In the last deflationary scenario, the counterparty risk is unlimited because fiat debt is released in all markets.

Are there any disadvantages? This is especially true if commodities continue to fall and flow into the credit market. If you were an administrator under the Weimar Republic, you would be fired several times. The United States is not Weimar, but we can still learn from Weimar.

As a venture capitalist, your goal is to manage and improve your buying power over time. And the Bitcoin process almost guarantees that the low cost of production will increase forever. So, the best idea for 95% of people is to allocate a lot of money in Bitcoin and keep it for a long time. In this case, the volatility will be over time, and luckily it doesn't seem to be going away anytime soon.