Will the Bitcoin bubble burst? Will the S&P 500 fall? Here are the top 10 massive money management predictions for 2022!

On January 16, The Eastern Times, the American real estate company Invesco Ltd. announced its forecast for the world's 10 major economies and markets for "unexpected but possible" (unlikely but possible) 2022. This camera was developed by Paul Jackson, Director of Invesco International Property Distribution.

Jackson calls these names "Aristotle's list". He first quoted the famous words of Aristotle.

He added that there are at least 30% ways "unexpected but possible" name situations will occur, and the names predict market demand will be mixed as the Fed has more today.

The Bitcoin bubble will burst

It could fall below $30,000 this year

Jackson wrote that the Bitcoin bubble will fall below $30,000 in 2022 when the bubble bursts. Jackson said the huge bitcoin boom was a warning of traders' actions ahead of the stock market crash of 1929.

"I don't think it's reasonable to think that Bitcoin has fallen below $30,000 this year," Jackson said. He noted that Bitcoin can be considered as a financial market on the list of currencies. This means that the loss increases. “Within 12 months of the peaks in financial frenzy, house prices will fall by 45%.

If Bitcoin follows this pattern, it might look like it will lose between $34,000 and $37,000 in October, but Jackson believes the bigger loss is all that matters, with Bitcoin falling below $30,000.

(Source: Invesco 2022 forecast)

With the exception of Invesco in particular, many inside investors are worried about the prospects for Bitcoin-led cryptocurrencies.

In a statement last week, investment bank UBS considered whether the cryptocurrency market is heading for a cold winter, with falling prices that haven't been fixed in over a year. Additionally, Antoni Trenchev, founder of cryptocurrency trading platform Nexo, told media that he believes the Fed's rate hike could push Bitcoin to as low as $30,000.

After reaching an all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021, the value of Bitcoin has fallen and is now hovering around $42,000. At press time, Bitcoin was valued at $41,615.1 each.

The S&P 500 falls at the end of 2022

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield May Exceed 2.5%

Jackson noted that the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ("S&P 500") has risen 26.4%, 18.4% and 28.3%, respectively, over the past three years. And since 1915, only nine times has the S&P 500 risen 15% or more for three consecutive years. At the same time, it is below the current S&P 500 Shiller PE (on Shiller PE) ratio above 38, and history predicts that the S&P 500 will be very low over the next ten years. Additionally, the Fed has been more volatile lately (with our rate hike this year and the possibility of a balance sheet deal), which could lead in the near term.

(US poverty, Shiller P/E ratio and S&P 500 10-year relationship Taken from: Invesco 2022 Forecast)

As of January 7, 2022, the 10-year US Treasury yield is around 1.76%, breaking 2% looks very easy, but it looks unlikely to break above 2.5%? In fact, the paper should be judged because it looks so ugly. Jackson sees it as a combination of strong economic growth (reopening after spreading everywhere) with additional inflation, rising interest rates and weaker balance sheets. Jackson expects 10-year inflation to keep earnings near zero, temporarily disrupting financial markets.

In addition to Invesco's forecast that 10-year US Treasury yields will rise, Byron R. Wien's surprise 10-year New Year's yields will even be above 2.75%.

EU carbon prices will rise further.

Can be higher than 100 euros per ton

Jackson also wrote on the list that EU carbon trading is a manifestation of the internalization of climate change concerns in the trade market. This is a classic example of dealing with a weather issue when leaving the store.

“I think carbon prices will go up even further,” Jackson wrote. The reason the world is now looking at the issue of global warming, and it is likely that carbon offsets will be over 100 euros/tonne (currently 85 euros/tonne) with the potential to “re-open” after a transmission. Thank you ..). guess).

This is the third consecutive year that Invesco has estimated high carbon prices in the EU.

In fact, the European carbon trading market has been very active in recent years. According to data compiled by the Financial Times, since mid-November 2021, EU carbon prices have more than doubled from their levels at the start of the year. In December, EU carbon prices rose again and by December 8 had hit a one-day high, almost 50% higher than in early November.

(Source of the carbon price map in Europe: Invesco forecast 2022)

Political, legal and economic estimates by country

Jackson also used certain pages to predict the political and economic life of many industries in the developing world, including:

1. The US Senate will be maintained by the Democrats.

2. The Australian Government will change its existing carbon emission rules and regulations. Jackson said Australia's anti-CO policy has now come under fire from countries around the world for refusing zero emissions, a policy he says could change if the government goes to work.

Three. Turkish government debt relief will be good. Jackson thinks a rebound in government revenue could provide a "cushion" for investors as the Turkish currency currently soars.

4. The Brazilian stock index will do better than expected.

5. Argentina will win the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.

6. In the context of the global reopening, the travel and entertainment sector is growing rapidly.