A third of the first quarter of 2022 has passed, but the heavy economy that began in mid-November last year has no intention of turning back. The market has reached this point and many are starting to worry about entering the long-term bear market.

It's been a year and a half since Bitcoin's 3rd half, "5.12" in 2020. In the last year and a half, a lot has happened in the cryptocurrency market itself and in the environment. corresponding external. Things and changes that make the whole crypto industry different than it has ever been.

It can be argued that the principles of the crypto industry have changed a lot, and this difference is not only due to the continued weakness in the control of Bitcoin itself, but also because the success of the Ethereum ecosystem and the popularity of content such as Metaverse, and Web3 is still huge. “With the natural world, there is also very different.

These events will have a significant impact on the current and future bull market and the emergence of the cryptocurrency market.

bitcoin fading,

Have you already lost your validity?

As we all know, Bitcoin existed before the crypto market, and since the birth of the crypto industry, it can be said that Bitcoin has become a market leader and a market leader in commercial value, reputation, interest in new funds and business impact. Bitcoin dominance, especially at the start of the second halving, is dominated by Bitcoin and has an incomparable existence.

In terms of market value, Bitcoin has long accounted for over 60% or even over 90% of the cryptocurrency market, making it a phenomenon that only Bitcoin knows about the crypto market and the influx of new OTC. Most of the investments come from Bitcoin, and the rise of other digital assets is mainly due to Bitcoin's capital ripple.

Bitcoin Industry Forex Market (Source: QKL123)

As a result, this phenomenon has frequently occurred during the ups and downs of the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin started going up first, then by major digital devices like Ethereum, some small assets started going crazy, then the whole market went up and finally Bitcoin fell.

However, after the start of this race, especially after last year's "5.19" crash, some people wanted to know that the aforementioned event slowly started to work. During this U-turn, the whole market changed a lot, and Bitcoin's dominance dropped sharply from the 2013 and 2017 rounds, as can be seen from a market cap share perspective. bitcoin above. It is clearly visible in the photo.

In terms of market value, Bitcoin currently holds 40% of the market, Ethereum 20%, and the remaining 40%. The impact of the Ethereum industry has gradually expanded, and the polarization pattern has gradually begun to appear, but also with the ecological improvement of the whole industry, the operation of various points has increased rapidly.

For example, the emergence of NFTs has attracted more users outside the circle to enter the crypto industry, and the explosion of DeFi, GameFi, etc. attracted more users to become consumers of digital devices and made the following improvements. . Metaverse and Web3 have attracted the likes of Facebook, Google and Tencent.

From the perspective of Bitcoin itself, the entry of agencies representing Wall Street gradually reduced its volatility and provided a solid foundation for value stability, but the entry of schools also caused losses for Bitcoin. himself. , organizations are generally based on long-term insurance, and bitcoin money will flow through and fuel other digital assets, starting with the rush rather than the main channel of money entering the crypto industry first .

In short, bitcoin's role as a successor has gradually become like real gold, becoming the premier record and retailer of value for the crypto market, and even if it regularly equals . Whether it is the entry of new funds, new users or the improvement of the cryptocurrency market, the leader of Bitcoin will gradually weaken and this will affect the rise and fall and the rate of bullish industry exchange will gradually weaken. Like the Qianlong Emperor who descended to become 'Tae Shang', he slowly gave up power and became the symbol of the whole empire, but gradually began to lose power in a special way.

the prosperity of the Ethereum ecosystem,

Can you manage a company's capital?

If we identify the reasons for the reversal of the cryptocurrency market in the past, we can see that money entering and exiting the market really determines the performance and image of the stable. In the first two halves, how much and how long Bitcoin will attract and hold money is the size and duration of the bull market.

However, this halving of the market is not one of the biggest differences in the market, it is the development and prosperity of Ethereum and the Ethereum ecosystem. The development of the Ethereum ecosystem has also extended the new chains to the public, especially the new successful chains. Capitalists began to enter, and as new money continued to flow in, this led to the growth of the entire cryptocurrency market and dismantled the situation where Bitcoin dominated the entry channel. fresh money.

The biggest impact of this event is that it aims to increase the long-term and large-scale size of the livestock market. For example, the development of DeFi projects based on public chains like Ethereum has greatly improved the efficiency of investments, and there are still ways to make money even if the market does not increase. And new technologies such as NFTs continue to emerge and more and more new assets emerge, and more and more companies target new funds to enter the market, but also provide "old money" which is already entered the market. He does not leave.

Now, the Ethereum ecosystem has become an important source of capital and investment both inside and outside the market, embracing many new innovations with themes such as NFT, GameFi, DAO, Layer 2 and other things that happen in an infinite stream. In such situations, the Ethereum ecosystem is unique not only in the crypto industry, but also in the entire crypto industry. Where innovation is paramount, the Ethereum ecosystem will continue to attract more investment in the crypto industry.

Of course, in addition to the Ethereum ecosystem, the ecosystem of other good utilities is also improving rapidly. The total network is 2,926 and continues to grow after the DeFi crisis in 2021. Two months ago, the crashes and declines of '5.19' did not stop TVL's growth. As the picture below:

The total cost of closing TVLs on the network (data source: defillama)

As a result, Bitcoin continues to slow in the first half of 2021, but the total market value of the entire cryptocurrency market hit an all-time high of $3 trillion late last year, showing strong energy. and strong growth.

If this gap persists, will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin in this competition? The answer to this question will vary from person to person, but there is no denying that the Ethereum market is affected by growth and Bitcoin market dominance is polarizing. Just as the United States has become the world's only superpower, China has become stronger. The same goes for Ethereum, which will be the biggest change in the entire industry.

The continued growth and prosperity of the public chain ecosystem, represented by the Ethereum ecosystem, has led to the influx of new currencies as much as the existence of Bitcoin, and it can be said to have provided an environment rich for the financial markets. The total market capitalization is the most important change in the trading environment, which will have a significant and significant impact on the bull market and the future performance of the cryptocurrency market.

The basis of the company is diversity,

Four-year-old brown bear circles can be broken.

As mentioned above, the principles of marketing are going to change a lot during this halving period. Besides Bitcoin's declining role as a leader and the rise of the Ethereum ecosystem, there are many changes not to be expected.

From the perspective of Bitcoin itself, insurer volatility is also evident. Large organizations, countries, civil society organizations, etc. started adding Bitcoin to their archives as part of their assets.

It does not differ between 2013 and 2017 in terms of capital inflows and outflows, which are the basis of the entire bull market. During the two halvings, the market was launched only for Bitcoin, after which many public chain tokens represented by Ethereum and many "greenhouse projects" began to emerge. can just leave. But now, more and more strategies and functions such as DeFi, NFT, GameFi and Web3, as well as more stablecoins and more financial devices have emerged. You have income and you do not have to deduct. Prolong the bull market.

Although it is not vague and difficult to interpret rules and regulations, law and order has always been taught. According to Forbes, the US Congress will introduce 35 crypto rights certificates in 2021 that focus on crypto. Financial management, the use of blockchain technology and digital banking, at the same time, other major industries around the world have also announced their efforts. Crypto rules, in the long run, it is necessary to follow rules safe and effective. The healthy growth of the crypto market. .

From the perspective of the business growth environment, the traditional Internet cannot keep up with innovation, and all the tracks have been completed by large companies, which makes it difficult because there are new tracks. In response, as many existing giants jumped into the blockchain “ALL IN” crypto business, Facebook not only changed its name to meta, but Sequoia Capital also announced that it would temporarily invest in Signature. It's the next generation of DAOs, not businesses. The influx of more and more traditional giants will make the bull market all the time. As long as modern capital flows into the market, especially large investments, there are many new ideas, new concepts and innovations, allowing investors to invest in various things.

Arguably, the fundamentals of the whole business have changed drastically, but if you consider the whole business model and image as the essence of the original Bitcoin, it has become old business. Even a 4-year cycle breaks.

The crypto industry is now much more complex than ever in terms of participants, structure and form, and we will see a lot of controversy in the market. So what's the store going to do next? How to use it?

Messari, a well-known content body, discussed the issue in depth in its 2022 Crypto Market Report released in December 2021. 1. After the market boomed again in the first quarter of this year, it will enter in a 2-3 year bear market. 2. There will be market throughout 2022, 3. Super cycle outlook i.e. slow and steady growth in the cryptocurrency market Depression is big business in the long run, but there will be a lot of small businesses in the long run. medium.

All three of these estimates were possible and varied from person to person. Personally, I agree with our vision of the supercycle. ? is mentioned in more detail. Here we mainly talk about some of the first two views.

Although the first view is to respond to the dominant position of Bitcoin in the past, the core business has been very different at this time. The second view is the inconsistency of the current market environment, with the expectation that the Fed's rate hike will gradually control the spread and start of the recovery, and the potential for the fierce bull market in the crypto industry throughout the year.

The third theory, the supercycle theory, is the best for the transformation of the economy and the business environment, the economy evolves and progresses slowly and not until the end. There are external reasons, but the length and depth are not as heavy as before.. Like small stores after 5.19, only use 2-3 months or 4-5 months. Despite the pain, it is less dangerous and unpleasant than the previous long and deep bears.

It is very difficult to predict the future. We can only see and hear some changes based on our own market analysis. Like ever-hungry sponges, we are constantly learning, learning, learning and always changing. Then practice, assemble and repeat, and most importantly, don't quit.