Did Blackstone predict that the "black swans" would fly by 2022?

1° 3°, Blackstone Private Wealth DivisionVice presidentByron Wayne(Byron Wien) Chief Investment Officer Joe Zidle has signedTop 10 Black Swans in 2022. The Blackstone Group predicts that the Fed will raise prices four times in 2022, with US commodities falling 20% ​​and oil prices exceeding 100.

President Byron made his 37th appearance on the black swan that could emerge in the economic, financial and political spheres next year. Byron is the former Chief Marketing Officer of Morgan Stanley.One of Wall Street's most influential analysts, who started the tradition in 1986.

Byron defines the "black swan" event as an event that most traders believe only a third of, but more than 50% will.

01Blackstone's Top 10 Black Swan Predictions for 2022

1. The US commodity market revised to almost 20%

The combination of positive gains and upgrades has made the S&P 500 underperform in 2022. The product is more profitable than emerging markets. The swings will continue and US commodities are up nearly 20% but not more than 20%.

2. Sustained inflation in the mainstream

Wages and rents continued to rise, but prices for some commodities fell, and the U.S. Consumer Price Index and other popular earnings rose 4.5% this year. Falling transport and electricity prices may prove somewhat favorable to "temporary inflation", but additional inflation has become important.

3. The Fed hikes interest rates four times, US debt rises

The 10-year US Treasury yield hit 2.75% as the financial sector began to experience further inflation and slump in Fed buying. The Fed will end in 2022 and hike rates four times.

4. America will come back to a better life.

Despite the presence of the omicron virus, reunions will return to pre-existing levels throughout the year, and the first ones in the United States will return in large numbers. Outside of work, people return to theaters, concerts and parks.

5. China has a lot of money to do business

China will continue to restrict housing investment to promote the health of the real estate sector. As a result, Chinese families have more money to invest. Effective business management in China provides opportunities for Western companies.

6. Gold prices have increased 20% for all periods.

Despite the growing US economy, investors are still looking for gold, a property seen as safe and resistant to rising inflation and inflation. As cryptocurrencies continue to gain market share, gold will once again emerge as a safe haven for the rich.

7. US Crude Oil Expect to Explode Over 100

Although major producers believe that higher oil prices could lead to another electricity start-up and make U.S. shale producers more profitable, WTI oil prices continue to climb above $ 100 per barrel as they grow. cannot raise enough to meet market needs. the analyst evaluates the estimate.

8. Nuclear power goes down in history

The potential of nuclear power will be widely recognized as adequate measures have been taken to reduce security concerns. A major nuclear power plant in the US Midwest will be approved for development. Nuclear power will become an energy potential in the future.

9. The ESG design is very good.

Improvements in environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) standards are not limited to the corporate proclamation of the company. Government agencies have put in place and passed new rules that are necessary for doing business for US state-owned companies to release data on their progress on a number of key metrics. . The Fed will conduct a stress assessment to assess the inability of financial institutions to cope with climate change.

10. The “Green New Deal” in the United States has failed

The U.S. green energy startup suffered after learning it couldn't afford enough lithium-ion batteries to power electric vehicles.

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What is the prediction of the black stone?

Since Byron first published the "Top 10 Predictions of the Year" in 1986,,Over the past year, the estimated success rate has typically exceeded 50%.In recent years, however, the world has become more uncertain, such as "today the world is undergoing a change unprecedented in a hundred years" with the uncertainty of the new disease, and the accuracy of Blackstone's annual estimates is also unstable. . The 10 Best Screenings for 2016 are out of the box, and most of both have turned out to be true. Although Byron couldn't help but laugh at himself when he released his 'Top 10 Predictions' in 2017. Everything was as I expected, but when Trump came to power (the bigger black swan has arrived), everything has changed. Corn2018, he predicts an improvement in US growth, the Fed has raised interest rates four times, the dollar has finally strengthened, oil once hovered at $ 80 a barrel, and the S&P 500 encountered a correction. by 10% ...Almost half of it passed on the beautiful stage.

For example, under former President Trump who planned to build his own television network and participate in the 2024 election campaign, strong commodities are the best commodities in 2021, the Fed continued to buy the contract and the deposit has been canceled.

Five predictions of "bad" or "wrong" samples, such as forming a new version of Chinese joint venture A and holding market share for last year's Summer Olympics In July, the hospitality and aviation are slowing down due to a demand for closure. 2% yield.

1 is a mixed bag.- The expansion of the fair market and the main commodities have not been good this year (the truth is that the US industrial partnership has expanded, but the main commodities occupy a prominent place).

Blackstone's prediction is wrong or not, in the end, the planning response after the prediction is more important than the prediction itself, only the idea can be trusted.