Bitcoin investment time and value

When the price of Bitcoin started to fall from $58,000 on February 22 of this year, I said that the price of Bitcoin would have a retracement of almost 40% per month and that this rally will take some time to complete the shock. . up and down. Now the one-month contract period has arrived, but the Bitcoin price has not changed as expected. Taking advantage of this opportunity, this article will take a deeper look at the value and investment of Bitcoin.

In terms of wealth, Bitcoin has been recognized on Wall Street for the past couple of years and has been widely owned by high-profit European and American companies and groups, but it is still a new treasure.Bitcoin has been around for 12 years since 2008. Compared to existing assets, it is still a relatively young asset and has no history. Although these assets have a half-life cycle every four years, it is difficult to estimate their growth based on traditional mathematical models. An important reason for using this context to predict Bitcoin's growth is that Bitcoin is recognized and owned by organizations on Wall Street. From the point of view of the growth of the European and American stock market, the cooperation of Wall Street has been further strengthened and the volatility of the exchange rate due to inflation and halving of production has been mentioned. Considering the characteristics of the half of Bitcoin production and the model after the 3rd halving in May 2020, it can be concluded that there is a similarity in the exchange rate of Bitcoin in the post halving period. . So based on the similarity, we can make the approximate cost the same.

The data is the basis for previous estimates. Analyzing the data on Bitcoin after two halvings, it is assumed that the key situation remains unchanged and this phenomenon may occur. The main reasons for this theory are:Human history continues to repeat itself. However, history does not repeat everything arbitrarily, and new changes are reported after the start of each cycle, resulting in a slight difference.At the start of the film 'Jurassic Park', Dr. Ian Malcolm highlighted the controversy in the hands of Dr. Eli Satler, where even if the situation starts to be the same, the happy medium and the results will be affected by the process. . This new variant differs from the first experiment and the results. For some, the thought of chaos explains why the needs are not the same.

In the first half of 2020, it was said that Bitcoin was a form of digital gold, and at the same time, it was also said that investing in Bitcoin is a worthy investment.The term investing is very clear and a word that thousands of people say. One of the recommendations for a worthwhile investment is that a worthwhile investment can provide long-term benefits to the investor and another if it needs to be user-friendly at the time. With this simple understanding, any investment can be profitable, and the management of the investment seems very easy.

In my experience, a worthwhile investment is to make the most of time, with an emphasis on improving the heritage itself and learning a macro cycle, and seeking long-term knowledge. of the future through research. True.This means that a profitable investment is not a one-time event, in order to put the idea of ​​a profitable investment into practice, you must be patient, study the past, the present Try now and in the future, and choose different objectives at different levels. . The goal of investment value is to have long-term value and to provide investors with a stable and predictable return on their investment.

So take a look at Bitcoin.

The upper Bitcoin design determines that Bitcoin is an insufficient asset in terms of Bitcoin units, but in terms of Bitcoin divisibility, 1 Bitcoin is subdivided into 100 million satoshis (the lowest of all Bitcoins). , cents RMB) can provide enough raw materials for trading, which becomes the scarcity of Bitcoin itself from a macro perspective.

From a price point of view, Bitcoin price exists at both strategic and objective level, and Bitcoin is also volatile due to its high energy expenditure.According to the Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index released by Cambridge scientists, if Bitcoin were to be considered a nation, it would rank among the top 30 consumers in the world, with an annual growth rate. of Bitcoin is approximately 121.36 terabytes. -hours (TWh, 1 terawatt hour equals 1 billion kilowatt hours). This image has already passed through the electricity in Argentina, the Netherlands and the United Arab Emirates and should pass sooner than Norway. This effort will only change if the value of Bitcoin drops sharply. Therefore, the value-based spiral is based on the value of Bitcoin and the energy it uses.The higher the cost, the higher the energy used and the higher the energy used, the higher the cost.

While it's hard to say that Bitcoin's current ecological environment is realistic, there's no denying that Bitcoin's growth is actually contrary to the principles of energy conservation to control carbon monoxide emissions.

An important reason why Bitcoin can become an investment is that its value increases. Even after half an hour, Bitcoin will face a bear market. At the lowest level of the bear market, Bitcoin price was even higher when the last halving started.It is not yet known whether these benefits will be effective in the long term. What is certain is that Bitcoin will be around for the next ten years or so, as we can see.

Probably the next time that will determine the fate of Bitcoin will ultimately be 0.19140625 Bitcoin mined.

A summary of detailed information and conclusions:

Recently, with the help of a third party and an internal team, we were able to achieve a seamless integration of Bitcoin and Treasury returns. The relationship between the profits of China and the United States was 0.59 / 0.69 (5 years / 10). Chinese contract yields are always in line with US contract yields. Detailed measures thought to be greater than current values ​​have not been adopted.The 5-year US Treasury bond has a correlation of -0.45 with Bitcoin price movements.Is it almost always used as a measuring tool?

Chart: Relationship between Bitcoin and financial returns