Evergrande and Sony affect global markets? large developing black swan

After the US market opened on September 21, the current pattern continued to decline in the Hong Kong and European markets yesterday. All of our major US products experienced a similar slowdown as the Hong Kong businesses. Dow plunged 950. The Nasdaq fell more than 5% at best, and ultimately fell 2.2% after a comeback.

In terms of the special effects of the decline, the Chinese stock market suffered the most, with many stocks falling more than 5%. The increase in technological, petroleum and financial resources as a whole has seen huge declines. The collapse of the US stock market has its own issues, including a swift response to Taper's decision to reduce asset holdings at the Fed's morning FOMC meeting on the 22nd, and was alarmed by the important warning. of Yellen on the public debt. ceiling. However, there is no doubt that Hong Kong was the cause of the crash, and Evergrande and Sony have become international players in this sense of collision in Hong Kong. The stock market is Evergrande and Sony two major countries, but this is not the case. absolutely no logic. Specifically, in the case of Evergrande, many foreign banks are compared to the financial losses of Lehman, one of the top 5 companies in the United States in 2008, and measured it as "Leeman de China ”.

Positive results are negative due to external inconveniences. Bitcoin fell below $ 40,000 on the 21st. The loss of other altcoins is hard to describe in words. Before the periphery usually sets in, the part is still subjected to constant shocks. With the help of external financial pressures, it can easily be said that the currency cycle has reached a deep clean. Financial investors who have seen the negative effects of the stock market over the past two days have revealed whether or not they are profitable. Are people still afraid of having to be patient and reflect on their ideas, lies or lies? Once again, comes the decision of your own brown debate, where all tests are good for people's money. Les Bleus think the correction is over or the industry bull is over so I wouldn't worry.

For real estate like Evergrande and Xinli, why do they have such a big impact? We can assume that international capital has seized the opportunity of short sales, and fear is growing due to ignorance of foreign law. But even in a plan, there has to be logic to the plan, and there has to be a "big story" that makes sense. If you watch the news from the past couple of days, the big news can be very scary and sell out. However, this theory seems incapable of explaining the struggle of world capital, are these smart laws, easy to understand since it took 40 years of reform and opening up in Korea? Here, the depression refers to the "advanced" logic of the "giant black swan" development, which is now beginning to be scrutinized by scientists and financiers.

I understand that you should understand the concept of these engine, which is, the world's famous "ways," Wall of unwanted. How to understand? China Famils ​​on Locks the rich of Chinese, so the consumption of the Chinese is reduced and exit. The second is that all phase of federal pobility in the all-federal government of the city. Inadequate information and the tax money has deprived of the delivery fee to have a firm submission in the international submission. These two situations are built in low and long-term amount of US benefits to take the measurement of the US Property . China marketing landscaping is mainly supported for the US products. In turn, the engine is easy, and US products are beneficial effective in the structure of the financial improvement in the temple. The loan, it is difficult for harder. If the US products collapses, home buildings have been tied up to clean the material in the hole. In the details of international economic, both the US and home industry is the "successful, all the bad things.

The above logic is the financial reasons for the past 10 years. But will it be reversed now? The roads of Evergrande and Xinli make you think of the worst of the future. What happens when this logic changes from positive to negative? It looks like a developing giant swan.

What do you think of the logic of the black swan? The new truck chains are approved as follows.

1. The introduction of housing policy has led to a recession in residential real estate and a slowdown in some areas.

2. Many leading companies have been forced to invest and, in the process of liquidation, the market initially stagnates, making it difficult or at least reduced.

3. Central and regional governments suffered setbacks due to land sales, financial constraints and decoupling improvements in Central America, and they were able to reduce or eliminate the tax cuts. For example, this year, when export duties on 23 steel products were removed, world steel prices increased.

4. It is difficult for the international chain to recover in the short term from a contagious event. Due to China's tax cuts, growing global demand is exempt, and most of the raw materials are used as raw materials, and other countries will be difficult to source. Competitive products at low cost in the short term. time. Due to the manufacturing.

5. Expectations of non-US economic demand continue, inflation has shattered and the Fed will lose money on short-term inflation.

6. The Fed must choose one of two options. Raise interest rates to control inflation or avoid lower interest rates and inflation-related capital gains. However, this will have a major impact on the global stock market, especially the US stock market, and it will be a major black swan.

Did you understand the logic above? This means that the US market has become more risky, but now it can be combined with the expectations of China. An earthquake of magnitude M6 on the Richter scale is initially desirable, but if it is included, a large earthquake of magnitude M8 or M9 on the Richter scale may occur. Of course, if the above logic is maintained, its power will be stronger than that of a normal black swan.

Of course, depending on the Fed's option, the cost of the hikes will be lower. Because the US debt is too high and soaring interest rates can affect interest rates too much. In addition, this time around, US inflation is pouring into the United States, and the interest increases will not be direct and can be used to limit international restrictions and counter inflation. Therefore, the final option is likely to convince the public by accepting a small increase in high inflation. In fact, while keeping prices and inflation low, incomes continue to rise, the shift from trade to “wait”. This means that even if a super black swan appears, the principles do not change even after a short period of stirring.

Is this black swan logic true? The blues are also believed to have some effect. For example, the reduction of national tax returns is the first national law, which started slowly and can now be accelerated. Although the export tax has the advantage of increasing exports, on the other hand, many domestic export companies lack the independence of technology and how the declaration of tax must be obtained. Last year the result was a tax refund of $ 80 million. Is there anything more profitable about this business than solving a task? On the other hand, it comes down to helping American consumers spend billions of yuan every year. I was getting up. Now China and the United States have reached this level. The change is the same. Although the Fed supports these prices, domestic demand is declining, some exports

When such a black swan shocks fiat currencies, the global investment market collapses, and in short, fiat currencies will be eliminated for no reason. However, if there is enough water, not all losses will change the fundamentals of economic benefits, but may lead to retaliation in the medium term. . In fact, the situation of the black swan in the future will affect the Fed by changing its policy and lead to a change of policy. The end of bullish futures is likely a change in the total tax base.

The above are the details of [2 ~ 3 types of money around]. A pair of races and time!