The old leek of the currency cycle tells us: Thoughts on the crypto industry can help you see the future.

It is believed that the new soils of the world currency have seen similar declines in the chaotic industry. So in this sentence I am going to show you how to see the future.

see the future clearly

Successful cryptocurrency veterans know that the cryptocurrency industry is an emerging industry. Thinking about needs is the starting point for measuring the outcome in which a future outcome will become a reality.

As far as I know, seeing the future is impossible now. A trader must first look at all the futures and predict the future.

This is not investment advice. I'm not an expert, just go in and share a few ideas, it's not research. I was just an adult walking blindly in the woods like everyone else.

However, let's go back in time and look at the different prices to explain the real problem, not the Marvel movie. Below is the ETH / USD 1D chart after the daily trade closed on May 19.

When the stock fell in May, it took Ethereum just eight days to drop from around $ 4,400 to below $ 1,800.

When there is a conflict, we need to think about four situations for the future. When eth fell below $ 2,000, I reported these four cases on Twitter.

For understanding, we have drawn a future table of free ends in each case.

1. The market went into another 2017 style boom / recreation cycle and peaked. We can expect the classic "convenience" cryptocurrency model.

2. The market will cool down further before the 2013 double bubble and will turn bullish again at the end of the year.

3. The market will fall and there will be disappointments almost never seen before.

4. Business acumen recovers quickly, quickly reach the fireworks ATH.

Of course, each of the ideas above has some differences, and there are other similar situations, but I didn't think about it because I think the difference is too small (eg always one side).

After making all possible decisions, a good trader will assess the situation. The potential weights are:

p(1) = 45 %

p(2) = 45%

p(3) = 5%

p(4) = 5%

In fact, I think events 1 and 2 are the same performance, accounting for 45%. It is also the two most common occurrences, probably 3 and 4.

Measuring the best performance in any of the above situations is very straightforward.

1-Buy: Buy at the lowest price, sell the classic "two shoulders" model.

2- Buy: buy low and reach new highs

3 - Sales: will go down

4-Buy: beat before the last day, Lfg

It is estimated that buying is the best deal for 95% of patients. He estimates that there is a 50% chance of hitting a new high, a 45% chance of a slight dip below the previous high, and a 5% chance of a complete failure.

Details below:

45% of capital: 80% of income (buy $ 2,000, sell up to $ 3,600)

50% capacity: 100% revenue (Buy $ 2,000 and sell new listings)

5% potential loss of 20% (Buy $ 2,000 from low rating trading, Stop Loss at $ 1,600).

The current changes seem simple. Buy $ 2,000, get around $ 3,600, and make your plan worth it to avoid falling into new lows due to poor trading conditions. Receive at least 80% of income in 95% of patients. If you lose -20% to 5% it seems worth it.

If traders have already held and did not close before or at the start of the plunge, they can use this information and speculation to decide on a hold rather than worrying about selling at a lower level.

Doge et Elon

I discussed this in a previous post with caution, but I think it's important here as well.

In 2019 and 2020, Elon tweeted more about Doge. In this bull market, he started selling Doge below $ 0.01. Here is the picture:

In the future, the situation will be:

He keeps shouting the price and it goes up.

He continued to support her, but she did not stand up.

He no longer supported her, but he continued.

She stopped giving birth and fell.

The result is

p(1) = 75 %

p(2) = 10 %

p(3) = 7,5%

p(4) = 7,5%

Since Elon has supported throughout 2019 and 2020, there has been a good opportunity that he has successfully promoted the company and supported Toji.

Of course you can support, but you cannot support well. And it will be dropped by the monitoring team or a consultant and it won't tweet like in 2019 and 2020.

In the case of an uptrend (p (1 3) = 82.5%), we cautiously estimate that there is 350% upside capacity (meaning the Doge will hit 3 or 4 cents). In other cases (p (2 4) = 17.5%) it will keep the current value or fall below the aggregate value. At worst, it can drop to 50%.

By this estimate, there is an 82.5% chance of winning 3-4x on this bet, and the low average of losing 50% of the bet. Again, I think it's worth the risk.

How to predict the outcome of a situation? Or is there room for a price increase?

I post this question on purpose. I promise that I will not write about the classification of returns, but I think it is worth exploring the possibility of some nuances of the future and the result.

I think this is the biggest problem. What do you think of the potential situations and do you estimate their potential? Honestly, you only guessed a little. And I hope we can do better over time.

A good way to express thoughts about the future is to look at what happened in the past. This perspective on companies and assets can predict what will happen in the future. Because the past was created by a team that would be as smart, silly, emotional and thoughtless as it is today. group.

A few simple story questions can be asked:

Are there more than 50% discounts that do not indicate the end of the bull market? So what has been the smallest drop in the past?

What happens after -30% recall history? Why is it different this time?

What has Doge done against Bitcoin in the cattle industry in history? What are your top level goals for the DOGE / BTC pair?

How have other benefits that have been so disturbing and exaggerated in the past increased? How are their graphics? Are there charts like the ones that are now overrated?

How many times has Bitcoin gone from its previous high (2013) to its next high (2017)? Is it more reasonable for assets with a market value similar to Bitcoin in 2017?

What often happens when an asset is transferred to a major exchange platform like Coinbase, Binance, etc. ?

Of course, history does not repeat itself. However, Twain can say that historical data and comparative models of direct or indirect trade can help us understand our predictive model for the future: where the cost will go and what the situation is.

Traders have a lot more knowledge about the market, so they may not appear to answer the simple questions mentioned above, but simply ask more difficult specific questions about the past and include various market metrics in those questions. They will make decisions on things like opening a position, decision making, volume profile, entropy, or someone who knows what they think is trustworthy or valuable. However, it is the same idea and the same approach as historical comparisons become more and more difficult.

With all your expenses, don't try:

Most traders are not well versed in testing cryptocurrency products because they are unfamiliar with the technology or the fundamentals. Also, I'm not very good at measuring the price of crypto assets as I don't know the market terms, the price charts. and financial markets. And if a trader makes a poor or inaccurate estimate of what will happen in the future, they can calculate the difference and lose all of their money.

In fact, 95% of people reading this don't think they should be involved in the cryptocurrency industry. While the upside potential in some markets is not worth losing this risk, it is good for the fastest growing real estate market of the past decade. If cryptocurrencies are truly achieving their relationship goals, there is still a significant long-term benefit.

But I know a lot of protesters, so my statement is very true. I just want to take your time to encourage you to take the risk. Take it slow. Push back the time and get-rich-quick ideas. Start writing down some thoughts about your business or investment and think about the reasons why you lost your money after the fact. Do not criticize the entrepreneur or our investment company. Although it is Suzhu's fault, so I am patient.

Simply put, this is not investment advice, it is how I try to justify the discount / average price of the others I have mentioned. But Sam says he promised it and he's a billionaire.