Hear from a macro expert explain why you currently cannot enter the cryptocurrency market.

Raoul Pal is the founder of Global Macro Investor and Real Vision, a global macro-financial research firm and is now one of the most well-known KOLs in the crypto space. This sentence is a compilation of Raoul Pal's thoughts on personal social networks. Rhythm BlockBeats creates it and defines it as follows:

A lot has happened in the digital asset industry this year, but very little has happened. This is the problem ... Below is my review and a review of these issues.

Why isn't 2021 the same as 2017?

Let's take a look at some channel data first.

BTC trade volume stagnant after rising in 2020

There is not a lot of space growth in the wallet ... inventory appears to have increased in early 2021

However, the retail market has been volatile by organizations (here we measure the portfolio portfolio with deposits greater than $ 10 million). Overall, it continues to grow, but the volume is still low.

At the same time, if you adjust by adding value, you'll find that big investors rarely come back after the move ...

If the Metcalfes rule applies, the popularity of the current Bitcoin network will be very low, which also explains the drop in prices. The same goes for Ethereum, but Ethereum also works better because there are a few other functions. Strong descriptions around the DeFi and NFT arena have boosted the volume of the Ethereum industry ...

The Ethereum address continues to increase ...

However, Ethereum locations remain stable throughout the year as people continue to return to the new era in this horizontal market.

However, in the case of ETHereum, the higher the trade volume, the more tokens will be burned (more on demand). Meanwhile, ETH Token's engagement has also cut some of its revenue.

Holding high prices, engaging and burning multiple tokens is the reason Ethereum will quadruple Bitcoin in 2021. However, there is no access to new capital and other public PoS channels are starting to appear. attracting more attention, Bitcoin and Ethereum's packaging activity is also underway. Fly. It is this background that allows people to trade assets on a regular basis for different tasks in search of higher returns. First DeFi, then NFT, now L1. As we have seen, the entire store is stuck in a horizontal growth stalemate.

It should be noted that many public L1 chains also have the same "hot staking" mechanism as Ethereum, but since their market value is relatively low, the price will increase the volume of transactions much faster. In fact, any property motivated by interference in the network must have adopted or have a reputation to achieve increasing value. This is why we can see some of the work that complements the network issues that affect the movement of costs. Because the market determines which networks are really attractive and which are not.

This cycle shows that the market is expanding, but it is more difficult to find good investments as investors now need more knowledge to generate good returns. This dynamic mechanism is good for those who carefully monitor the content of every area of ​​the market, but for new investors, they are faced with a market driven by the high level of FOMO. Moving on to the next story, when the first traders began to focus on their fantasies, these newcomers often found themselves trapped in the mountains.

Where will the funding come from for 2022?

We believe that the main reason for the decline in sales in the market is that the human growth rate is actually lower than the real CPI growth rate. The cost of living continues to rise, making it difficult for investors, a group of "bad investors," to engage in cryptocurrency investments, and some without being able to afford daily income. As we won't be seeing a stable market and low inflation just yet, the cryptocurrency market needs to rely on institutions and finances to allocate more capital. This view is likely to be identified in the first quarter or January of next year, but we'll have to wait and see ...

Most wait-and-see traders now say management issues are their biggest fear. Yes, that will still be the main topic for a while. This will move many large buildings away from the crypto space. After all, it is better to allocate money to venture capital firms to avoid the risk of overinvestment and oversight.

At the same time, I think they are running out of money they are allocating to defense. Perhaps this is because the market and investing haven't proven that most hedge funds are crypto experts. I admit, of course, that I was wrong, I created a crypto hedge fund anyway, but I still hope that many organizations can join the fund.

Another major driver of digital assets is the Fed's balance sheet. If year-over-year balance sheet expansion increases in 2021, we can see that the digital real estate market is growing accordingly as well.

Modification of the Fed's annual report

Total market value of the cryptocurrency

Of course, over time the crypto space will penetrate deeper, demand will increase, and the total market value will increase further. However, for now, in order to increase the value of the token leader, new funds need to be introduced to the market. I think the market now fits the "HODL" model. In other words, you have a good job with a good reputation, if you have the essential tools. Also, don't blindly pursue unless you know what you are doing ...

There will be a broader market recovery with the pursuit of new capital, which will strengthen FOMO sentiment among retailers and businesses, creating an uptick. I believe the day is coming, all you have to do is stand up straight to catch a big fish, buckle up your seat, save a lot of money, and use up your energy. The best advice I can get from my work is Paul Tudor Jones (The Legend of Money). He once said that the best investors he knows are the ones who stick to their investment terms. So if your investment model is also in line with the Metcalfe rules, the thing to consider is the year, not the week or month.