Lub Sijhawm's bullish forecast concludes: clarity of US political situation determines market fundamentals

Examining recent developments in the American political and economic model shows that all the details have become a reality. In the 2022 midterm election, US Democrats will lose, Republicans will likely win the Senate and House by the midterm elections, and Trump will be re-elected as President of the United States in 2024 unless he does. deceased. With the help of the global epidemic of 2020, the American founder ousted Trump, who was only one president, but I fear it will be difficult to unite to defend Trump a second time.

It's not hard to make a financial decision if our above assumptions are true: Ahead of the 2022 midterm elections (November 2022), the Biden administration is trying to defend the Fed with bad financial and monetary policy. . , like regular interest. , will strive to adopt policies that help win people's hearts, such as global health. After the 2022 midterm election, opposition between Democrats and the Republican Congress will be stronger if Republicans control both houses. , changes in financial policy. This would make former Vice President Joe Biden dependent on the announcement of the weather campaign funding for the remainder of his three-year term, and the process could not be completed. Hair. Here is a brief description of the logic after making the above estimate.

Let's talk about the US midterm elections first. Midterm elections are good political elections. The Senate and the House of Representatives are re-elected every two years. One is the same year as the president-elect of the United States, and the other is exactly half of the president's term. Why do you predict the Democrats will almost certainly lose in the 2022 midterm election? Because Biden has been really bad since his first year in office and has shaken up most of the courts. “Seven Deadly Sins” include:

1. The financial economy is weak and the situation is confused. Posttheng immediately, it is 6.2%, 30 years, without any material that is not available, and there are free on west, and have no specific equipment. In addition to data advertisement, the time is more than half of the extra time for the instructions of 2 port 7 x 4 hours. Certainly backing. In fact, over 30 years old, United States cannot be established ports. Is there a capacity of US means the ability of something? For example, infiltration, Biden government's characteristics are 4 steps: start "infreading negative," Invalidity is not good for "gaining money". I am very foolish.

2. The handling of the new plague is also user-friendly. Initially, this was the primary reason Biden opposed Trump during the campaign. As a result, all Americans saw him after he came to power. One of his mothers, the plague stayed the same and Biden managed to do nothing.

3. Afghanistan withdrew its troops from one place, throwing millions of dollars into the water, which, not to mention the evacuation, caused embarrassment and serious injury.

4. Biden is old and doesn't respect his own morals. There were jokes about politics, and although the international community didn't trust him, the household elite were disappointed. Recently, Biden's daughter's repertoire was also reported which was horrific and sexually explicit that couldn't be expressed in words.

5. When the debt was high, the Biden government attempted to raise taxes, which angered the wealthy. Democrats, for example, point out that Bezos and Musk pay millions of dollars in taxes every year, which is hell for wealthy Americans.

6. Biden's leaders tried to publicize and use the “big government”, which angered the American education elite. Most of these elites have dedicated themselves to supporting America's "small government" for over 40 years and see it as the golden rule. So he was a temporary hero for the President of the United States to get good government eg Roosevelt, what is fame? In each of the four presidential elections, the turnout was over 80%, and in 1936, the turnout was 98.49%.

7. President Biden has also failed to meet the expectations of American reformers. Former Vice President Biden initially envisioned the $ 4 trillion infrastructure project, but only adopted the $ 1.2 trillion plan. What is the content? They are generally intended for health care. The first plan was to invest $ 570 billion in manufacturing and research and development, without a single penny. It is clear that these strategies can still be used to satisfy the electorate and will not facilitate the recovery of the US economy.

So in those seven cases, Biden's consensus continued to decline and is now 38% lower. I don't want Biden running for re-election in 2024. Unsurprisingly, his opponent, Trump, has criticized Biden as "the worst president in American history." Unlike Democrats, Republicans in the Trump administration have done a "cleanup." Trump's Republican Party, the power of the weak, has retreated.

This incident first occurred in elections in the last two states, New Jersey and Virginia. The two states were originally "Dark Blue States," the Democratic primary, with Biden overtaking Trump by more than 10% in the presidential election. As a result, the recent elections have not only lost, but the worst. In the New Jersey Senate election, 20-year-old Democratic Senator Sweeney lost to Republican Durr. And this Durr is a truck driver unlike the competition who only spends $ 153 on food, drink and advertising unlike much of Sri Lanka. The broadcast video was uploaded to the cell phone by a friend's grandson. Democrat McAuliffe looks very strong in the Virginia gubernatorial election. He has been an old friend of the Governor of Virginia for four years and of Biden for over 30 years. His opponent, billionaire Glenn Yankin, is "Little Trump" without any political knowledge, and his political views are the same as Trump's. He paid less than $ 5 million for the race and won a solid McCoy Reef. Democrats were embarrassed in these two elections.

Given the current US economy, economic growth and the epidemic, the chances of Biden's leadership returning next year are slim and the 2022 election in the medium term is likely to fail. After the defeat, Republicans took control of two houses and Democrats fought to complete their term for the next two years. The big picture is almost everything, and financial and monetary policy can predict the difference.

Against this backdrop, how is the Fed cutting revenue in response to the needs of the Biden administration? Until Biden executives blow up the hub? He doesn't care about being an old man, but other Democrats and politicians should eat. For the average American, if inflation is high and wages are low, it is better to quit a job and seek financial assistance. First, people are forced to give money to the government because they have no money (it is very difficult for investors to raise wages).

By the way, it's not impossible for US stocks to fall sharply, but it should be deep, not short. Why? Because the market value of US commodities has focused on multiple market monopolies (the Dow Jones Index has 30 major commodities, for example), spreads have increased their trade and profit trajectory, so that they cannot lower. The reason. Continued Liquidity Long bulls below the expansion will continue to affect other global venture capital markets. The benefits are of course no exception. The higher the liquidity, the stronger the speculation. Are there more casinos than below in the world? currency wins? As the US political landscape has become clearer, the basis for long-term and short-term growth becomes clearer.