From another perspective, it relies on the top of Ethereum's future market value and the current situation in the currency market.

In the past, I have talked about various considerations on President Chang's 1000-fold increase in ETHereum estimates, the main reason being that there is a higher limit on the cost of Ethereum. The services are too expensive, making the city economically and economically comparable to its competitors, and the unprofitable ones produce good results. In the comments area, some readers have warned that upgrading Ethereum 2.0 and side chains will cause GAS rates to drop. Cost of ETH. Thus, this article estimates the higher price of Ethereum that various variables will face in the future.

This assumption is an estimate of global financial assets over the next 20 years. Ethereum belongs to blockchain finance, virtual finance, and is part of the global financial system. Current estimates from various financial companies show that virtual money can replace around one-third of traditional finances (for example, two-thirds of internal finances). That's about 1/3 of Defi. Currently, Ethereum chains own over 80% of Defi, but we expect some distributions and differences to be an exception with the Defi upgrade. In about 20 years, the Ethereum chain still owns a third. It is already a success. Thus, 1/3 times 1/3, the Ethereum Defi chain will represent 1/9 of the global financial future.

Then consider the percentage of ETH that is inherited from Defi. Currently, Defi's cross-chain legacy application for the Ethereum chain, such as Bitcoin, is growing rapidly, and in the future, ETH is still 50% of the status, 1/9, then ETH is the global financial market 1 / 18. -a stool. can. Just to take other factors into account, we can set the ETH cap at around 1/20 or 5% depending on the assets needed to conduct global financial transactions.

Currently, global GDP has reached $ 100,000 billion, total global financial assets are close to $ 1,000 trillion, and the relationship between the two is about 1:10, which is "commercial value. virtual 'due to leverage. , this has increased tenfold thanks to the investments, according to Jiang. About 20 years later, the legal background shows that when the wind blows, global GDP doubles and inflation is estimated at $ 300 trillion. , so 5% equals $ 1.5 million.

However, this 5% is the upper limit of financial services in the Ethereum chain, not the upper limit of using ETH based on the size of the asset. Like a bank, its operations can run into the hundreds of millions of dollars, but the actual equipment used is minimal. According to the Basel Accord, the bank's capital ratio is 8%, or revenues of $ 100 billion. $ 8 billion investment Yes, these rapid growths and the expansion of primary investment have boosted the economy. The entire Ethereum chain is similar, but at 10%, a $ 150 trillion market would require around $ 15 trillion worth of ETH.

So in the end, we got a cap value of US $ 15 trillion. From the above estimates, we can see that it always depends on where everything is going well and well developed. The present value is estimated at $ 10,000 billion after deducting $ 15 trillion and a fiscal year of 20 years. Excluding inflation, the 20-fold increase in rates is only 30 times. Yes, Ethereum's market value will exceed this limit in the short term due to the exaggeration of the process, but it is important that the highest levels are only estimated about 50 times, right? You can't jump 100 times when you're crazy.

This way, you can make it simple and unreliable for Ethereum's market value to change by around $ 15 trillion in 20 years without deducting 30-50 times the incremental value. This reason is not affected by the development of technologies like Ethereum 2.0 or the development of sidechains, which is a global and partial restriction.

Then we talk about new businesses. Yesterday the currency traded lower and Bitcoin fell back to $ 56,000. This is not due to a "failure", but to limit the small circle of the money cycle. If you focus your perspective on globalization, you can easily see that the world economy is in an unstable state. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for the 18th day, with a correction of almost 10%. The US economy is still showing signs of slowing, and is facing a one-day decline, so foreign markets must struggle to recover in the short term. In fact, in terms of normal forex market volatility, the recent forex market has also been relatively strong relative to other market caps. Until the US stock market stabilizes, it is virtually impossible to break the rising stock markets.

What is the reason for the recent weakness of the global market, especially the US market? These are of course two factors influencing the spread and inflation. In short, the American and European governments have a strong desire to control inflation in the short term because inflation has risen to the level of public dissatisfaction in the short term. The “zero dollar buy” has been happening all over the United States, and it's such a popular complaint. In particular, the situation where the price increase increases is that the energy continues to increase because the winter heat is "very beautiful".

So there has been a lot of bad news recently, but the emergence of the mutant Omicheron is one example, and I don't know if a collaborative theory will be formed. At least considering the current performance of the US market, the situation in the US market is not very good. US commodities are highly regulated commodities, and the Dow Jones Index shows that the bear market hasn't stopped for days, and earnings are off-market and not fast for a short time. This is of course a bad sign. The Nasdaq fell, reversed slightly and crashed. The US stock market is volatile and the currency market is always affected.

In terms of market trends, most US stocks will take one or two major losses in the future, but not all losses in US stocks will be huge after the total ends. The downturn has affected many global economies, especially the power industry. Frankly speaking, you first surprise people, destroy the markets, raise the dollar, and then save the market. But the scale isn't as good as it was 312 years ago, and if it was too heavy it wouldn't. As for oil prices on the NYMEX index, the decline continued to drop from $ 84 per barrel to around $ 64 per barrel, a correction of 25%. While US markets expect a 20-25% drop, the process of recalling oil prices to US commodities is more than half over, and he believes the final blow is most likely.

It's important to remember that American commodities are the lifeblood of the American economy. There is no long term loss of the investment, so it needs to be adjusted in the short term. The Fed will use the flow of water to control capital. Frankly speaking, it is likely that inflation will return to normal by implementing a 20% correction in the US markets and adjusting oil prices to control inflation by adjusting the inflation rate to between $ 50. and $ 60. term, ranging from December to January.

Understanding the above situations and external markets can help you understand the current situation in the currency market. The entire volatility industry is recovering temporarily and may deteriorate in the short term.