What is the pricing potential of Bitcoin as assets emerge?

bitcoin term

The Bitcoin Genesis Block was born in 2009. Although the history of value dates back only 10 years, it has become one of the best devices of the 21st century.If you had invested $ 10,000 in Bitcoin five years ago, you could earn an annual return of 119%, which is worth up to $ 500,000 today. In the past, Bitcoin has reported positive gains during the annual suspension since its launch on September 1, 2020, and for the most part, it has made significant progress. Like the picture below:

Annual compound return of Bitcoin

Currently, Bitcoin is still on the rise, but our research shows that Bitcoin is still a long way from monetization and can still be enjoyed.We estimate that the market value of Bitcoin (value network) will exceed one figure in the next ten years, growing from $ 200 billion today to trillions of dollars.

Next, we will talk about Bitcoin as the greatest business opportunity.It has been estimated that the market value of Bitcoin will reach $ 3 trillion by 2025.

Estimated Bitcoin Market Price

1. Bitcoin as an international payment

We believe that Bitcoin can become a payment option for banks and businesses.Unlike traditional payments, the Bitcoin network is global, transactions cannot be censored, and funds cannot be raised by institutions such as middle banks. Bitcoin can be designed to handle large financial transactions in the medium term rather than to facilitate multiple small transactions. Most US payments based on international payments today must be made through Federal Reserve Bank Real-Time Gross Payments (RTGS) or Fedwire.

The Bitcoin network supports both sender and receiver, eliminating the need for bidder settlement and settlement, and the inability to withdraw high-value assets within hours. It can make 2,000 payments around the world almost every 10 minutes, anytime, anywhere. As discussed in "Bitcoin Market as a Payment Network", the Bitcoin network can handle daily transactions with other banks in a network of 850 banks around the world. In the United States alone, $ 14.7 trillion in annual deposits equals $ 1.3 trillion in business payments.If 10% of payments can be secured at the same deposit rate, we would expect the Bitcoin network to grow from $ 200 billion to over seven times $ 1.5 trillion, according to the image below.

Bitcoin value based on payment network (Ark's virtual analysis)

2. Bitcoin is a digital cube

As part of its transition to the digital market, Bitcoin could compete for gold status as a global retailer.Market history shows that the price of an asset increases as demand increases for supply. An app measures three roles that an asset assigns to a single currency: market value, average exchange rate, and a unit of account.

For thousands of years, the world believed that gold was the gemstone. Through the process of natural selection, commodities compete for control until gold is transformed into a global monetary model.Gold retained its status as a market asset, but in the 20th century its restrictions as barter and unit of account began to appear.

Bitcoin supporters call it digital gold because it improves various properties of body heat. Bitcoin is not only rare and stable, but also divisible, verifiable, portable and transferable, which avoids the threat of centralization.According to our research, if Bitcoin captures 10% of the physical gold market, the value of the network grows by almost $ 1 trillion, as shown in the figure below, which is five times the current pattern of $ 200 billion. of dollars.

Bitcoin values ​​based on digital gold (ARK hypothetical analysis)

Overview of blockchain-related data

1. Informations

출처: Coin Metrics Network Data Pro

Just before Monday's drop, the data network edged up last week.After the release of Uniswap's UNI token, Ethereum (ETH) exchange rates began to rise. ETH's resettlement, which fell to a four-month low on September 11, is also back thanks to UNI. Daily Bitcoin (BTC) positions remained strong last week, averaging 978K.

2. Importance

After Uniswap announced the UNI token on September 17, ETH products reached 1.41 million today.

Source: Data graph from the Npib Metrics network

On September 17, as users submitted transactions to the Uniswap deal to request and redeem UNI tokens, Ethereum smart contract submission volume also hit record highs at 915.56K.Since July, the Financial Management Authority (DeFi) has passed Ethereum's mission, resulting in an increase in contracts. This shows that with the continuous improvement of DeFi, Ethereum is increasingly used as a smart contract.

The figure below shows the daily volume shipped to the contract address and not the contract smoothed using a 7 day average.

Source: Data graph from the Npib Metrics network

Likewise, as of September 17, the value of ETH conversions to smart contracts (conflicts) reached an all-time high of $ 3.07 billion.The figure below uses a 7-day moving average for the smoothing.

Source: Data graph from the Npib Metrics network

As a result, the total amount of the ETH exchange rate reached its highest level since January 2018. ETH updated its 7-day moving average against BTC on September 6. Since the creation of UNI, the ETH initiative has been strengthened.

Source: Data graph from the Npib Metrics network

business information

ETH volatility has rebounded after a recent crash and UNI's debut last week.This is important because it follows the unpredictability that has not been seen since mid-2019. The escalation of this conflict precedes some major incidents such as the first phase from ETH 2.0 and the fastest political date delay to September 25. .

Source: Npib Metrics Market Data Chart

ETH options that expire on Friday are open contracts worth almost $ 450 million.For Deribit exchange options, this will be the largest expiration date for Ethereum, and Deribit is the largest provider of these contracts (based on public contracts). These events can add uncertainty to the course of prices during the week, as traders can hedge the risk of these trades, exit from these positions, or make speculations. Available in stores.

Source: Npib Metrics Market Data Chart

CM Bletchley Index (CMBI Index)

The CMBI and Bletchley indices performed differently this week with the best performing assets in the market. Importantly, the CMBI Bitcoin Index was bullish and closed 5.6% this week at $ 10,879.71. The CMBI Ethereum Index was also up 2.4% this week to $ 371.44. The performance of these two indicators extends to the performance of the Bletchley 10 Index. Although many other assets fell this week, the index rose 2.5% this week.

The small cap index traded less well for the week, with the Bletchley 20 and Bletchley 40 indices closing at 5.7% and 7.8% respectively. A few weeks ago, these indicators were supplemented by asset trading.

Source : Coin Metrics CMBI

This week, the CMBI Bitcoin Hash Index rose to 151,760 petaash on Friday. The high continuous hashrate can be seen from the Bitcoin CMBI Observation Work Index. Weekly data from the CMBI Bitcoin Observation Work Index shows that miners completed 85,506 zeta hashes this week (up 14.3% from the previous two weeks). This break from the historic high hash rate sent Bitcoin stocks up 11.35% on Sunday.