Global Economic Research 2021: US Treasury Rises, Cryptocurrencies Most Expected

In the second year of contagion, the performance of the global financial market is almost the same as last year.

Overall, the bull market is stable, the stock market craze has rocked Wall Street, and rising energy and food prices have pushed up inflation and the stock market.

On the currency side, the Turkish Lira fell while cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin rose. Green investment has passed, but oil and gas, the biggest pollutants, are the biggest winners this year, up over 40% and 50% respectively.

Rising global stock market

The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Global 50 Index rose 13% thanks to continued financial support from banks and the economic recovery.

However, there are some obvious differences. According to data from Bank of America, the Nasdaq index (including 3,780 products) rose 23% this year, from 64% to Microsoft (MSFT.US), Google (GOOG.US) and Apple (AAPL.US) .), Nvidia (NVDA.US) and Tesla (TSLA.US).

European banks had the best performance this year, growing 33% in more than a decade, while the MSCI Emerging Market Index (MSCIEF) fell 7%.

“I think the US economy is really crazy,” said Tommy Garvey, a member of the GMO Assets Distribution group on the board of directors.

The value of global trade will increase by $ 10 trillion in 2021

the craze of stores

Retail sales have increased on Wall Street this year, with so-called “MEME” commodity prices rising.

Station Gaming (GME.US) gained nearly 2000% in January and the stock market is still up 700% after giving big gains. Another popular "MEME" stock, AMC Cinemas (AMC.US), is up more than 1,000% so far this year compared to a 3,000% increase in June.

Tesla (TSLA.US), an industry leader in electric cars, rebounded from the lows at the start of the year. However, other innovations related to cash or commodities such as the Ark Innovation Fund ARKK, some solar commodities, biotech stocks and specialty companies (SPAC) lost 20% -30%.

increase commodity prices

Commodity prices rose as major markets slowly moved out of the gap and moved towards a recovery. Oil and gas prices rose 40% and 50% respectively, as they were the highest in five years, pushing prices better than the previous gap.

Gold prices have fallen, but the agricultural sector has grown steadily, with corn prices rising monthly, sugar by 20%, and coffee by 67%.

Oil, Gold, Bitcoin, Coffee, Stock market trends

inflation

By 2021, everything from crisps to crisps will not be able to meet demand due to the widespread impact on global commodity markets and growing financial concerns from investors.

Global inflation will rise in 2021

As US inflation hits its highest level since the 1980s, the Fed announced earlier this month that it would end its spending program sooner than expected. Increase interest rates after the event.

Central banks from other major countries are expected to follow in the coming years, but some new ventures have been successful.

The commercial contract is exchangeable

High inflation and big banks began to shut off their water supplies, making the financial crisis difficult for years.

In 2021, most of the major financial markets will not be good.

US Treasury bonds are expected to fall 2% for the first time since 2013. The euro has fallen 8% this year, which means that in dollar terms German government bonds have fallen more than 9%. %.

At best, the riskier companies "fold" the contract, scores below the CCC, earn about 10% in the US and Europe.

Inflation-linked bonds also have positive returns: US TIPS 5%, European equity bonds 7% and UK linked bonds 6%.

read lost

The fall of the Turkish lira is not surprising, but this year the decline is significant.

In March of this year, when Turkish President Erdogan, who called himself an "enemy of interest", replaced the governor of the bank, the pound's exchange rate fell. Turkey's central bank has cut interest rates for the fourth month in a row since September this year, inflation remains high and the pound's exchange rate has fallen.

The exchange rate of the pound rose this week as the Turkish government used various measures to stabilize the exchange rate and respond to inflation, but this year it has fallen again by more than 40% and the promise of the government had a major impact.

Cryptocurrency is on the rise

2021 is by far the craziest year for cryptocurrencies.

The value of Bitcoin has reached almost $ 70,000. Bitcoin's nearly 70% gains may look negative compared to last year's 300% gains, but they were achieved when regulators restricted Bitcoin in May, when the price of Bitcoin nearly halved.

Bitcoin will host the 'roller coaster' market in 2021

Dogecoin is a digital token launched in 2013 and is a derivative of Bitcoin. In May of this year, the price of Dogecoin rose 12,000% year-to-date to the new all-time high, but in mid-December it had fallen almost 80%. .

Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have also seen explosive growth. In May of this year, American artist Beeple's digital virtual reality work sold for almost $ 70 million at Christie's auction, making it one of the three most expensive works in the world. he artist depends on the competition.

The green sector is also important.

This year, the green economy continues to generate interest. This year's green contract announcement is expected to hit a record high of nearly $ 500 billion. The ESG version of the MSCI Global Commodity Market (miwd00002pus) has increased by more than 2% compared to the standard version (miwd00000pus).

In addition, thanks to consensus, financial firms announced $ 180 billion in green contracts this year, hitting other private equity firms and setting records. However, some analysts have warned that the size of the green contract issued by financial companies is larger than the size of green plans due to the use of such financial instruments as well as cost creation and innovation.

Green bond issuances by global financial institutions have more than doubled this year.