Has the month of December increased or decreased? You need to pay attention to these few important things.

The cryptocurrency market is on the downside as it enters the last month of 2021. What will the market look like in December after 11 months of competition? Is it to end the year 2021, or to shout?

To answer these questions, we need to go back to some key moments that took place in December. 2021, and as Christmas approaches, will there be a “Christmas” thief in the cryptocurrency market? These events can affect the rise and fall of the market at different levels and can directly "end" the livestock market. Here are the other things to keep in mind.

In addition to these important events, December also has events that will affect the rise and fall of the crypto industry, such as the OPEC summit, the NATO summit, the resolution of interest rates from the European Central Bank and Chinese PMI data. At the end of the article, we'll be running these events in the “Crypto Market December Economic Calendar” format, so stay tuned.

Before we start the article, let's take a look first. How did Bitcoin perform in December in history?

Here are the benefits of taking Bitcoin data from a third-party data exchange website and working on the filter statistics:

December Gains in Bitcoin History (by European E Academy)

As you can see in the image above, in December in history Bitcoin generally received more returns. level 2. the average return is 13.2%, and the overall performance is relatively stable.

Looking only at 2021, according to data from the Ouyi platform, in the last 11 months of this year, Bitcoin closed in 6 months and closed in 5 months, so it can be said that it is tied. Currently, Bitcoin's annual growth is around 65% and overall remains in a bull market.

December 3Is the economy in decline due to lower expectations for non-farm data from the United States?

As of 9:30 p.m. Beijing time on December 3, the U.S. non-farm payroll report for November was lower than expected. Of these, 210,000 new jobs were created, far exceeding analysts' estimates of 573,000, and unemployment fell further to 4.2%, reaching the industry consensus estimate of 4.5%. .

At the time of the data's release, Bitcoin had reached a near-term high of $ 57,617 (European data), after falling, before falling as low as $ 41,241 according to press time. Other digital assets also follow Bitcoin. It continued to decline by more than 20% or even more than 30%, leaving the entire market "red colored".

In fact, not only has the cryptocurrency market fallen, but also three major US indices, the Dow Jones, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500, have closed. The Nasdaq has already fallen more than 2.5% in after-hours trading.

Some analysts said U.S. investors decided to sell earlier in the week, with skeptical data and skeptical data on the mutant strain Omi Keron. This has led to an unpredictable spread in the crypto market, this situation warns many "existing investors" of the "3.12" plunge caused by the new virus in 2020, when a new disease first emerged in the world. .

In fact, non-farm indicators of the development of manufacturing and service industries in the United States are an important indicator of the health of the US economy, and more importantly, because they directly affect the Fed's fiscal policy. Therefore, the day when all non-farm measures are released, will cause a major earthquake in the global financial system, and this night is also called "non-farm night".

Is the US economy improving overall? Of the 210,000 new jobs created, the economic recovery in the United States has not lived up to expectations, ie the economic slowdown. We know that advancement is the key to improvement for any country or business, the lack of increments makes it difficult to maintain even “temporary” success.

So in terms of job creation, the US nonfarm data is not as good as expected, so the Fed will not start raising prices in the near term. After the release of non-farm data, CME "Fed Watch" immediately released its estimates. There is a 100% chance that the Fed will raise rates to the 0% -0.25% range in December, and a 0% chance that the Fed will hike rates by 25bp.

Of course, not all laws are 100% accurate, so investors should carefully monitor the laws and take into account the integration of various factors.

Does Dec. 15 Fed Interest Rate Meeting End Livestock Market?

On December 15, Beijing time, the Fed is expected to announce the results of its December Federal Open Market on interest rates.

In our previous article, “The Economy” “Rapid Rises and Falls”, a crisis of the crisis affected the rise and fall, we said that the outcome of the Fed meeting The discussion of rates interest could have a major impact on any investment firm. Interest rates and other factors could emerge that could lead to a downturn in the economy and even a direct end to the stock market.

What are the results of the Fed's December 15 interest rate meeting?

Fed Chairman Powell announced "grievances" earlier this month to support swift negotiations (reducing contract purchases) at the FOMC meeting in mid-October. Two months and no increase reported as a result temporary. There are also other backers from Fed leaders.

Powell's reason is that the Fed needs to make its water supply faster than the Ome Keron virus has reached such a critical level that it risks disrupting the supply chain and causing additional costs to rise. President Powell's massive transition from dove to eagle has led to a downturn in global markets, including cryptocurrencies.

The economy generally views inflation as negative at this point, but the Fed is more cautious, which means the flood season could be delayed. If the Fed raises interest rates, will other midsize banks follow suit? Some analysts have pointed out that if the new drug Omicheron continues to push up prices, Europe and new markets could raise interest rates at the same time, but this approach could have small benefits and will be due to the cost of the recovery and slow sales. . work development.

Central Bank rate on the world economy (Source: Huitong Financial)

However, the slowdown in buying and the pace of future growth will be negative, and the next Fed rate meeting will be crucial for investors.

December 25 Cryptocurrency Market 'Christmas Theft'?

Christmas 2021 is approaching and it could be the end of a major setback for the cryptocurrency industry in 2021.

Christmas is one of the most important holidays in European and American countries, causing major changes in the economy as well as every public holiday. Using Bitcoin as an example, in the eight years since major websites started collecting Bitcoin prices in 2013, Bitcoin has tripled and declined five times, with huge losses in 2018 and 2019, and the market roller coaster increased in 2017. A cow turns into a bear. This is why some traders call Christmas a "Christmas disaster".

Hasn't the market yet seen a valid reason as to why the market changes so quickly around Christmas? As Christmas approaches, Europe and the United States must have a good Christmas celebration, or foreign currencies must prepare annual announcements soon, so they must increase exchange rates. Perhaps this is because after Christmas, European and American investors need money for the holidays. There are many assumptions about what causes the rise and fall.

Concluding the all-time high for monthly Bitcoin price activity, we can only say that Bitcoin had the best performance in the first quarter and the strongest increase in the fourth quarter. in the future.

Whatever the reason for the big changes around Christmas, history has already paid off, and as an entrepreneur you need to be very careful with business disputes and manage your risk at this time.

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Historically speaking, the price spikes for Bitcoin's first two halvings occurred in December of the second year after the halvings. In December 2017, Bitcoin's second round of halving reached its peak and the bull market moved into a bear market. In December 2021, when the third half became "December 2 of the year," was the stock the highest in the period and did it continue to decline?

It's hard to make precise predictions about the future, but as a mature entrepreneur you should always be afraid of the market, be patient with marketing, and wait for answers.