The Bitcoin Beacon MicroStrategy chip will soon run out in the face of huge interest. What else can I do?

MicroStrategy "bullet" figures

On December 9, 2020, MicroStrategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) [1] announced the retirement announcement with a total stake of $ 650 million, including $ 550 million in swap orders and $ 100 million in options. The second trading period is December. March 15, 2025. Among them, the coupon price of the swap contract is 0.750%, and interest is paid for the first half of the year. The exchange rate is about $ 397.99 per share, or about 37.5% of the share's closing price at $ 289.45 on December 8. After deducting the first purchase price of discounts, fees and shipping charges, the proceeds from the sale of the ticket are estimated to be US $ 635 million. Since then, MicroStrategy has purchased 29,646 bitcoins [2] for approximately $ 650 million in cash, with an average value of approximately $ 21,925. To date, MicroStrategy totals 70,470 Bitcoins, with a total value of approximately $ 1.125 billion and an average purchase value of $ 15,964.

On February 17, 2021, MicroStrategy [3] announced a retirement pension announcement with a total stake of $ 1.05 billion, including $ 900 million in interest-free notes and $ 150 million in options. The change date is December 15, 2027. The exchange rate was approximately $ 1,432.46 per share, or approximately 50% off the closing share price at $ 955.0 on December 8. After deducting the original purchase price, discounts and payments, and shipping costs, revenue is estimated at $ 1.03 billion. Since then, MicroStrategy has purchased 19,452 bitcoins [4] for approximately $ 1,026 billion in cash, with an average value of around $ 52,765. To date, MicroStrategy totals 90,531 Bitcoins, with a total value of approximately $ 2.171 billion and an average value of approximately $ 23,985.

On June 8, 2021, MicroStrategy [5] will announce an unsecured contract with an increase of $ 500 million in 2028, a coupon rate of 6.125%, and a six-month interest rate, therefore annual on June 15 and 15 December Interest. is $ 15.325 million. After deducting the first buyer's discount and payment and shipping charges, the sale proceeds are estimated at US $ 488 million. Since then, MicroStrategy has purchased 13,005 Bitcoins [6] for approximately $ 490 million in cash, with an average value of $ 37,617. To date, MicroStrategy totals 105,085 Bitcoins, with a total value of approximately $ 2.74 billion and an average value of approximately $ 26,080.

MicroStrategy的Stock "balle"

On June 14, 2021, MicroStrategy and its agent, Jefferies LLC, signed an open contract agreement [7], which would occasionally list the product at full price, no more than $ 1 billion at Jefferies. As of September 30, 2021, MicroStrategy was selling 555,179% of similar Jefferies products for an average price of approximately US $ 727.64 per share, according to the Quarterly Financial Report [8]. Sales revenue was approximately $ 399.5 million. The total value of Bitcoin purchases in the third quarter was around $ 420 million, and so far MicroStrategy has 114,042 Bitcoins, with a total value of around $ 3.16 billion and an average value of approximately $ 27,713.

On December 9, 2021, MicroStrategy announced that it had purchased an additional 8,436 Bitcoins in the fourth quarter, for a total value of $ 496 million, with an average value of approximately $ 58,748. To date, MicroStrategy has a total of 122,478 Bitcoins, with a total value of approximately $ 3.66 billion and an average purchase value of $ 29,861.

As of December 9, 1 billion shares under the sale agreement were still available for sale for approximately $ 100 million.

Your ability to pay interest determines whether to sell.

MicroStrategy the remaining 100 million "balls" are provided by the sale of commercial products, so they do not receive interest and do not need to use them because the average price of their current jobs is higher than the costs commercial. This driving cost of $ 100 million is low. In other words, if Bitcoin rises in the market forecast, MicroStrategy will not suffer further even if it does not sell the remaining 100 million shares. And if Bitcoin doesn't respond to market speculation, that $ 100 million bottom line will fall into the bucket. So what we really appreciate is not how much MicroStrategy can buy Bitcoin, but when it sells it, which will depend on its ability to pay interest.

According to its quarterly financial data, as of September 30, MicroStrategy has paid $ 17.52 million in interest this year, including $ 2,062,500 in interest on the first quarterly payment due June 15. This allows us to estimate that MicroStrategy will pay at least $ 50,075,000. ($ 1,752,206.25 $ 3,062.5) interest annually starting in 2022.

Two years ago, MicroStrategy's quarterly EBIT peaked at around $ 10 million (excluding Bitcoin damage), or $ 40 million per year. If trading profits do not increase further, you may find that MicroStrategy's EBIT will not be able to pay interest for many years. In the meantime, the company must raise more money or sell bitcoin to pay off its debts. The good news, however, is that the company now has around $ 57 million in cash, so there won't be any financial issues until June 15 of next year.

Since the Fed hikes rates in June of next year, MicroStrategy could buy all the cash to pay future interest rates, and the company faces a cut if the currency drops and tough repayment charges . So far, interest rates are unlikely to peak at operating profit, and therefore it is unlikely to take out mortgages for the next four years. Therefore, in order to be financially secure, there are only two ways to avoid having to sell additional commodities to the SEC or sell bitcoin.

If the sale goes through, the value will be over $ 500 million, as MicroStrategy will have to pay insufficient funds to eliminate the high interest rates. However, this is because the investment in February of this year is not expected to exceed $ 1.4 billion by investors in February of this year, and the investment before the year is minimal, so once sold, it may be difficult to redeem it. same price. The years were high, there was no money or access, there were hard times, so don't rush to sell. (Original image from btcmanager)

Remember that the $ 1.5 billion Microstrategy 'new chip' has become a Bitcoin ETF, but it comes with two major risks.

1, https://www.microstrategy.com/content/dam/website-assets/collateral/financial-documents/press-release-archive/MicroStrategy-Announces-Pricing-of-Offering-of-Convertible-Senior-Notes. PDF

2, https://www.microstrategy.com/content/dam/website-assets/collateral/financial-documents/press-release-archive/microstrategy-announces-over-1b-in-total-bitcoin-purchases-in- 2020.pdf

3, https://www.microstrategy.com/content/dam/website-assets/collateral/financial-documents/press-release-archive/MicroStrategy-Announces-Pricing-of-Offering-of-Convertible-Senior-Notes_02- 17-2021.pdf

4, https://www.microstrategy.com/content/dam/website-assets/collateral/financial-documents/press-release-archive/microstrategy-acquires-additional-19452-bitcoins-for-1-026-billion_02- 24-2021.pdf

5, https://www.microstrategy.com/content/dam/website-assets/collateral/financial-documents/press-release-archive/microstrategy-announces-pricing-of-offering-of-senior-secured-notes_06- 08-2021.pdf

6, https://www.microstrategy.com/content/dam/website-assets/collateral/financial-documents/press-release-archive/microstrategy-acquires-additional-bitcoins-and-now-holds-over-105000- bitcoins-en-tout_21-06-2021.pdf

7, https://www.microstrategy.com/en/investor-relations/press/microstrategy-announces-third-quarter-2021-financial-results

8, https://www.microstrategy.com/content/dam/website-assets/collateral/financial-documents/press-release-archive/microstrategy-announces-third-quarter-2021-financial-results_10-28-2021. PDF