Pantera: Is BTC a Ponzi Scam? No, there are other plans bigger than the Ponzi scheme.

This article follows a letter from the investor of Dan Morehead, founder of Pantera Capital.

it's a ponzi scheme

I have heard this phrase for 8 years.

Regulators have discussed the bubble and manipulation.

The market is right. There is a huge Ponzi scheme going on. Let's check.

delay manipulated luam

"The Commission explained the requirements of the code of conduct (...) designed to prevent (...) Manage attitudes and practices “and“ protect business people and the public ”.

“The only way to benefit from heavy pyramid schemes is to sell it for a higher price for the next 'big step'.

“The Commission asked in a previous order. This includes… those who regulate Bitcoin… investors based on sensitive data, not the public.”

- The SEC does not approve the right to change the direction for the registration and trading of participants in the VanEck Bitcoin Trust on November 12, 2021.

The Bitcoin market is too big to be controlled. Bitcoin is traded on hundreds of exchanges in many countries. Bitcoin's daily turnover is 1,000 times that of GameStop, which is only traded in one market per country.

[SEC Chairman Hester Peirce has been encouraging the Bitcoin market is doing well enough to self-regulate.]

bubble

“Bitcoin (and most other crypto assets) is difficult to rationalize as an investment asset. It shows that we have seen the historic formation of bubbles.

"However, lawmakers have passed laws like Fondstandortgesetz in Germany to encourage new ideas in crypto assets, increase the risk of bubbles and ultimately become community issues."

-Ulrich Bindseil, Director of Market Operations at the European Central Bank, November 19, 2021

All of this means nothing for Bitcoin's high performance. How do you get a bubble that hardly anyone else has? About 90% of businesses do not have access to Bitcoin or other blockchain tokens. It was never a bubble.

“Knowing yourself is the start of intelligence. - Socrates

bubble agreement

Governments shouldn't think about Bitcoin and look inside.Biggest ponzi scheme in history is the US government and the mortgage industry-33 trillion US dollars - All of these are run by non-profit organizations, which have an important role to play and participants in their business based on non-public data.

This is all due to the Fed's "downsizing" concerns over the next few years. what? ! ? ! The Fed's strategy should be “Cold Turkey”.

"Basta! (Stop)"

A person must make a claim under the federal Whistleblower Protection Act for "large sums of money" under the law. Issue $ 50,000 to every American household to support the cost of borrowing REITs and other assets held by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, while undermining the power of the average American. , making people unable to afford their housing is incredible. waste of money. 35% of the population is homeless, putting our children in more debt than they needed to win WWII.

Bond will meet Wyle E. Coyote. Nothing, he knows the danger). I don't know if it's next week or next. After the midterm elections? But it's true.

Hedging of nrog Bitcoin institutional bonds

Someday the fundraising will resume.

Trading companies holding contracts, especially if you prefer the classic 60/40 equity / bond, can hedge bubble contracts with Bitcoin / crypto currency.

asymmetric industry

In my work, I have looked for asymmetric markets where the gains are more than the gains. Obviously, Bitcoin / blockchain has been the most asymmetric business in a generation.

Bonds do the opposite. The upside potential is only a small part of the actual drop.

The 10-year US Treasury yield is 1.34%. Even if the Fed cuts the rate to zero, it might not be, but it could be the highest level needed. Mortgage rates only rose 13 percentage points. Now let's take a look at the drawbacks. ...

The real interest rate is negative

In fact, ROI is the return on investment that a trader receives after inflation. In the case of 10-year US Treasuries, the correct average interest rate for the 50 years before printing (1957-2007) was 2.63%.

The Fed decided to print half of US GDP and raise the price of bonds, bringing the real interest rate down to -4.65%. (This obviously raises the question: why would a business partner want to buy something that could result in a loss?)

The best way to see how cumbersome this control is is to plan the difference between real interest rates over 50 years on average. The gray area is our new world of buying unlimited contracts. We are now 7.28% below average.

bursting of the contract bubble

If the Fed does not implement the trade deal, investors will be completely bankrupt. for

Below are the market prices for the US Treasury and mortgages. The big short press the Fed used is a fact. The value of the contract increased by $ 10 trillion. Bonds will fall if the Fed is forced to stop.

The dotted lines above indicate what would happen if real interest rates were unregulated and reverted to their 50-year average. The contract price will drop by 30%. This is inconsistent for the potential increase of up to 13%. What if only half of it goes back to normal? 6 trillion dollars in market value evaporated!

Buying cryptocurrencies with a market value of just $ 3 trillion seems like good protection.

The Fed bubble burst

Such growths are unstable.

house prices are rising

The Fed's control over the mortgage industry is creating unprecedented problems. for

A survey released by the National Association of Realtors shows that in the 12 months ending in June 2021, the average time for U.S. homes to hit the market before signing a mining contract is one week. This is the lowest since 1989.

It's crazy. Why is the Fed ** still buying ** the loan agreement? Trying to make it look bad?

economy

Accept the deal if your company didn't sell your contract to the Fed. for

The Fed cannot pay more for your contract. Receive a gift.

Gravity will kick in if the Fed doesn't stop trading.

Contract Bubble reminds me of a classic country song by Hank Williams (Jr.). She, too, cried.

Inflation is everywhere

Global financial analysis since last month. The increase in the euro zone is the highest in 13 years.

The US CPI is the highest for 39 years. To see inflation increase, you have to go back to 1982.

old fashioned inflation

“The Fed Powell Chairman's rate hike is worse than the statistics show. Reports show that consumer prices are the highest in 30 years. In fact, it was one of the post-war countries most affected by inflation in the 1970s and early 1980s.

“In the 1970s, fluctuations in rents were considered inflationary. Today people think rents are equal because in the 1970s inflation was going to take off. ie an increase of more than 10%.

- Joseph Carson, CFO, AllianceBernstein, The Wall Street Journal, November 25, 2021

This is true for the CPI equivalent of landlord rents which only increased 3.1% last year. Anyone looking to buy or sell a house / apartment knows this is not true.

Sometimes the shrinkage helps. Owner's equity was established in 1982. The current exponent is 3.47359. I believe we will all be happy to buy a house for three times the price in 1982.

This is the case with domestic inflation. Mortgages Mortgages are driven by the rising costs of real estate.

financial tsunami

The proclamation tsunami not only moved the house, the whole ship floated. All real and insignificant assets are skyrocketing relative to the value of paper money. for

Retail sales continued to hit new highs as the United States responded to unemployment and unemployment of 3.6 million before the outbreak. This is clearly the result of too many rules.

Experts speak of high-end products. Judging by historical figures, the price will seem too high. However, it's not expensive compared to in-store bubbles.

Goldman Sachs Research has done a great job of working on the vision. These products may seem expensive, but they are inexpensive compared to the commercial financial system.

“The Fed responded to the new epidemic by pumping large amounts of liquidity into the financial sector and reducing revenues to zero. Affects promotion, reached its current peak ...

The P / E of 21.6x and the real price will make history 93%, but the relative value of the commodity compared to the yield of the US Treasury compared to the historical average (46%) is attractive ... .

"The difference between the return of the S&P 500 (4.6%) and the yield of the 10-year US Treasury (1.6%) is now 301 principles, ranking 40% of all time," he said. -he declares.

- Goldman Sachs 2022 Macro Outlook: Long term at best prices, November 8, 2021