Bitcoin active address, address distribution and volatility analysis

This report introduces the concept of active Bitcoin addresses, distributed addresses and unchanged addresses, and examines and estimates the trends of the above metrics over the past few years.

number 1

BTC address

Figure 1 shows all special addresses (sender or recipient) from January 2017 to July 6, 2020. The increase in the number of current addresses shows that the same people want to know more about Bitcoin, but the exchange of users of the parabolic bull 2017 market to date is not significant.

In the 2017 crash, the number of addresses dropped by around 66%, much like the value of Bitcoin. After three years of decline, the number of active users has returned to a level close to 1.2 million. Some investors believe that long-term cryptocurrency holders pay less for moving costs and that an increase in the positive position could lead to adoption.

As shown in Figure 2, the number of active Bitcoin sites this year increased by 94.62%, from 522,168 to 1,016,237. In contrast, at the time of going to press, the price of Bitcoin was on the rise. by 30.84% ​​from $ 7,196 to $ 9,415. So far, the correlation between the price of Bitcoin and the number of Bitcoins in the address is 0.35, mainly because the number of addresses continues to increase when the price of Bitcoin is between $ 8,000. and $ 10,500.

n°2

BTC address distribution

As of July 15, 2020, there were 0-0.001 Bitcoins in a total of 14,733,545 locations on the network, representing almost 50% of all Bitcoin addresses. Singapore-based Huobi is the only cryptocurrency exchange with a storage capacity of 100,000 and 1 million bitcoins. Among the other major exchanges, Binance was 4th with 88,990 holders, Bitfinex 9th with 60,001 holders and Bittrex 10th with 59,802 bitcoins.

Today, the number of Bitcoin-rich sites has dropped to its lowest level. Last year there were 4 addresses with over 100,000 bitcoins and 110 addresses with over 10,000 bitcoins. As can be seen in Figures 3 and 4, only 2.7% of Bitcoin addresses hold more than 1 bitcoin, but it is these 2.7% of addresses that represent 94.96% of the total number of bitcoins in the whole network. Some traders believe that Beluga started holding bitcoin in various places. Exchanging the number of Bitcoin addresses will not fully represent the number of investors entering or exiting the market, which means that the "free whale" is investing in other miscellaneous digital assets.

name 3

BTC 30 days and 180 days of transaction

Bitcoin volatility is a measure of the extent of Bitcoin price volatility on any given day. Compared to the market value of gold, Bitcoin still holds a small market value of around $ 170 billion. In general, the lower the market value of an asset, the greater its volatility. As a result, the value of Bitcoin can fluctuate rapidly in the short term.

Figure 5 shows that Bitcoin's 30-day volatility fell to its lowest level since March 6 and gains fell to 2%. As always, the combination of low volatility rates often means that prices fluctuate significantly. Data shows that when Bitcoin's 30-day volatility drops below 2%, Bitcoin's value appears volatile. For example, two days after the Bitcoin bandwidth ratio fell to 2% in 2018, the price of Bitcoin fell below $ 6,000 on November 4. Two days later, when the Bitcoin bandwidth ratio reached an average of 4% per day, the price of Bitcoin fell below $ 3,500 on November 25. From this point of view, the value of Bitcoin requires significant changes.

Looking at Figure 6, we can see that in January 2017, Bitcoin's 180-day volatility fell to its lowest level in history and also triggered a bull market. Starting in 2018, every time Bitcoin's 180-day volatility increases, Bitcoin's value will decrease. For example, in March 2020, the Bitcoin exchange rate rose 66%, which, combined with the price of Bitcoin, fell 62% from $ 10,236 to eventually close at $ 3,868.

After the March 2020 crash, Bitcoin's value rose more than 150% in the two months leading up to the May 11 mining giveaway. Since then, Bitcoin's 180-day volatility has generally remained stable and investors have not been able to gain a foothold in the historic position where the value of the currency is above $ 10,000 or $ 9,000.